The Development Trend Of Five-Axis Linkage CNC Machine
Five-axis linkage CNC machine tools are the foundation of high-end manufacturing and are widely used in aerospace, automotive, military and other fields. According to QY Research data, the global five-axis machine tool market will be worth US$7.48 billion in 2021, and is expected to reach US$13.8 billion in 2027 at a CAGR growth rate of approximately 10%. At present, the market share is mainly monopolized by international leading enterprises. The revenue scale and sales volume of domestic enterprises are far behind those of international leading enterprises, and there is huge room for the future. At present, the domestic aerospace and new energy automobile industries are in strong demand, which is expected to bring development opportunities to domestic enterprises. At the same time, the entry of domestic enterprises is expected to accelerate cost reduction and increase the penetration rate of five-axis machine tools.
#Five-axis linkage machine tools are widely used in high-end manufacturing industries
Machine tools are mainly composed of basic components, spindle components, feed mechanisms, CNC systems, auxiliary devices, etc. A machining center refers to a CNC machine tool with a tool magazine and an automatic tool changer, which allows the workpiece to automatically and continuously complete multiple processes such as milling, drilling, boring, reaming, tapping, and grooving after one clamping. If the machining center is equipped with an automatic indexing rotary table or the spindle box can automatically change the angle, the workpiece can also be automatically processed on multiple surfaces and in multiple processes after one clamping. Therefore, in addition to processing various complex curved surfaces, the machining center is very suitable for processing complex parts such as various boxes and plates.
Machining centers are classified according to their layout, mainly including vertical machining centers, horizontal machining centers, gantry machining centers, composite machining centers, etc.
According to the classification of CNC systems, CNC systems control several coordinates to coordinate motion at the same time according to the required functional relationship, which is called coordinate linkage. According to the number of linkage axes, it is divided into two-axis linkage, two-axis and semi-linkage, three-axis linkage, four-axis linkage, and five-axis linkage. Linkage etc. Five-axis linkage CNC machining mainly means that there are at least 5 coordinate axes (three linear coordinates and two rotational coordinates) on a machine tool, and the 5 axes can be interpolated at the same time to process parts.
Five-axis machine tool structures include table tilt type, spindle tilt type and table/spindle tilt type five-axis processing machine tools. 5 Axis CNC Machining Service and linkage CNC technology is one of the important standards for measuring the technical level of a country’s complex precision parts manufacturing capabilities. From the “Batumi List” to the “Wassenaar Agreement”, Western developed countries have implemented strict technological blockades against China. Five-axis CNC technology High-end industries such as aerospace, weapons, and shipbuilding, where linkage CNC machine tools are widely used, have faced further intensification of blockade in recent years.
#The global market size will exceed US$7 billion in 21, and the domestic market space will be approximately RMB 10 billion
According to statistics from QY Research, the global five-axis CNC machine tool market size reached US$7.48 billion in 2021, and the industry size is expected to reach US$13.8 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.05% during the period.
According to QY Research data, the majority of global five-axis CNC machine tools are monopolized by leading overseas companies such as DMG Mori Machinery, Yamazaki Mazak, Hammer, GROB and Doosan. In 2020, the market share of the top five manufacturers reached 62%, and the top ten manufacturers accounted for more than 80% of the industry’s market share; Code CNC is the leading domestic five-axis machine tool company. In 2020, the revenue of five-axis CNC machine tools was only 172 million yuan, and the market share 0.39%.
The domestic five-axis market space in 2021 will be approximately 10 billion yuan, and is expected to reach 18.683 billion yuan in 25 years. According to data from the Machine Tool Industry Association, China’s metal processing machine tool imports in 2021 will be US$7.46 billion, of which machining center imports will be US$2.636 billion, accounting for 35.7%. It is assumed that 60% of the machining center imports are five-axis machine tools (considering the high unit price of five-axis in ordinary machining centers), corresponding to a market space of US$1.595 billion, equivalent to RMB 10.309 billion, accounting for 21.38% of the global market. Based on global market data predicted by QY Research, considering that the demand for five-axis machine tools in the domestic market will continue to increase driven by the increase in the proportion of high-end manufacturing on the one hand, and on the other hand the entry of domestic enterprises into the market will accelerate cost reduction and promote the replacement of three-axis machine tools by five-axis machine tools to increase penetration, assuming In 2025, China’s market share in the global market will reach 25.38%, and the domestic market space will reach 18.683 billion yuan in 2025.
The localization rate of China’s five-axis machine tools is less than 10%, and there is huge room for domestic substitution. The high-end domestic machine tool market is mainly monopolized by overseas companies. As of 2018, the localization rate of China’s high-end machine tools was only 6%. We estimate that the current localization rate of five-axis machine tools is still less than 10%.
At present, the revenue volume, production and sales volume of domestic five-axis machine tool companies are far behind those of overseas leaders, and domestic companies have huge room for growth. Taking DMG Mori Machinery and Code CNC as examples, DMG Mori Machinery achieved revenue of RMB 21.945 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 20.63%, and Code CNC’s revenue in 2021 was RMB 254 million. DMG Mori Machinery’s global sales volume is 11,574 units in 2021, and Code CNC’s sales volume is 126 units in 2021. There is huge room for growth.
#There is strong demand in new energy vehicles, aerospace and other fields, which is expected to bring growth opportunities to domestic companies
The downstream applications of five-axis CNC machine tools are mainly in aerospace, automotive, military and other fields. According to QY Research data, the sales of five-axis machine tools in the aerospace, automotive, and military industries accounted for 39.9%/24.3%/13.3% respectively. Among them, the automotive field is mainly used to produce cylinder blocks and automotive parts; the aerospace field is mainly used to produce aircraft blisks, engines and other precision parts.
Judging from the order data of Japanese machine tools exported to China, high-end machine tools have maintained strong demand resilience in the down cycle of general machinery this year. From January to August 2022, new orders signed by key enterprises contacted by the China Machine Tool Industry Association fell by 6.2% year-on-year. However, Japanese machine tool orders exported to China were basically the same year-on-year under the high base last year. In 2021, Japan’s exports of machine tool orders to China increased significantly by 77% to 358.04 billion yen (21.03 billion yuan based on the average exchange rate in 2021). From January to August 2022, Japan’s exports of machine tool orders to China increased by 0.72% year-on-year, returning to positive growth under the high base last year. According to monthly data, orders began to weaken in January this year and began to rebound in a trend in June.
The fields of new energy vehicles and aerospace are expected to drive continued growth in demand for five-axis machine tools and bring growth opportunities to domestic enterprises:
- 1) Aerospace field: There is strong demand for domestic substitution of five-axis machine tools, and the domestic large aircraft industry chain continues to release incremental market demand. Five-axis machine tools have many application scenarios in the aerospace field, covering the processing of aircraft structural parts, landing gear, blades, casings, compressor impellers and other components. As domestically produced large aircraft gradually enter mass production, the demand for five-axis machine tools is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, under the influence of trade friction, the aerospace field is in urgent need of high-end machine tools that can realize import substitution, and the incremental market space is expected to be tilted towards domestic enterprises.
- 2) New energy vehicles: The advancement of new processes such as integrated die-casting is expected to continue to increase the demand for five-axis machine tools. New energy vehicle manufacturing is transforming towards lightweight and integrated manufacturing, and integrated special-shaped structural parts are expected to provide opportunities for the application of five-axis machine tools.
#Domestic companies have entered the market to accelerate cost reduction and are expected to increase the penetration rate of five-axis machine tools to replace three-axis machines
Five-axis machine tools bring economy through higher processing efficiency, smaller footprint and energy consumption, and have certain substitution for three-axis machine tools. According to data disclosed by DMG Mori Seiki, the world’s leader in five-axis machine tools, it used 10 five-axis machine tools to replace 50 vertical five-side processing machine tools, resulting in higher processing volume, smaller footprint, and energy savings42 %.
We believe that the penetration rate of five-axis machine tools is expected to continue to increase:
- 1) Supply side: Domestic companies have entered the market to accelerate cost reduction, which will drive the economic efficiency of five-axis machine tools to continue to improve. The high price and high cost of five-axis machine tools are due to the high cost of core components such as CNC systems and swing heads. Currently, we see that the technological maturity of domestic CNC systems and functional components continues to improve, which is expected to drive the cost of domestic five-axis machine tools to continue to decrease. Taking Code CNC as an example, the external selling price of its self-developed CNC system is 50% lower than the average price of Siemens 840D, while the gross profit margin of standard products is more than 50%.
- 2) Demand side: Five-axis machine tools will become the core for private enterprises to enhance product competitiveness. In order to improve processing efficiency, save space and labor costs, meet the diversification of product processing, and comply with marketization trends, more and more companies will choose five-axis machine tools to enhance product competitiveness.
#With the support of funds and policies, the “independent controllability” of five-axis machine tools has accelerated
From high-end CNC systems to high-end machine tools, they are the core of the high-end manufacturing industry chain and are national strategic materials. Western countries and Japan have implemented export restrictions and supervision and use policies on China. In the context of the current tense international situation, there is a trend of becoming more stringent. To limit the development of China’s national defense technology. At present, we see that domestic high-end CNC systems and five-axis machine tools have achieved breakthroughs from 0 to 1. The high-end machine tool industry chain is imminent. With policy support and financial support, domestic substitution is expected to accelerate.
#Technology: From functional components to host manufacturing, domestic five-axis machine tool technology has gradually matured and has the basis for domestic substitution.
From the perspective of the composition of five-axis machine tools, compared with three-axis machine tools, five-axis machine tools mainly add/upgrade components such as five-axis CNC systems, swing heads, and turntables.
The difficulty in manufacturing five-axis machine tools is mainly reflected in the high requirements for high-end CNC systems and functional components, while the domestic industry chain is less mature and relies on imports of core components. On the one hand, the price of domestic five-axis machine tools remains high, and subsequent maintenance costs are high. , the speed of popularization is limited; on the one hand, it suppresses the profits of domestic enterprises:
- 1) CNC systems are currently mainly imported from manufacturers such as Siemens, HEIDENHAIN, FANUC, Mitsubishi, etc. The import costs are high and they are also subject to blockade restrictions. Some high-end modules are not correct. China opens up to imports.
- 2) Functional components are dependent on imports. At present, the degree of specialization of the domestic industrial chain such as swing heads, turntables, measurement feedback components, etc. is far behind that of the West. There are few varieties and unstable quality. High-end functional components are dependent on imports, which affects the profits of machine tool factories.
#CNC system: Kede CNC and Huazhong CNC have achieved a breakthrough in the five-axis CNC system from 0 to 1
Code CNC and Huazhong CNC are among the first companies in China to develop CNC systems. Currently, their high-end CNC systems have achieved benchmarking with leading international products such as Fanuc and Siemens. Code CNC equipped with self-developed CNC system five-axis linkage machine tools has entered the market. In high-end manufacturing fields such as aerospace, Huazhong CNC cooperates with machine tool companies such as Halma CNC, Neway CNC, Ningbo Haitian, Changzhou Ruiqisheng, and Dongguan Evermi, and its penetration rate in the field of high-end CNC systems continues to increase.
Kede CNC and Huazhong CNC have basically realized the servo drive and motor matching of high-end CNC systems.
Taking the Huazhong CNC system as an example, it currently covers RTCP functions, right-angle head bidirectional tool length compensation, swing head indexing, dynamic accuracy measurement, digital display hand crank, inclined tool facing, zero position protection function in fully closed-loop mode, tool axis direction Typical five-axis functions such as length compensation, five-axis inclined plane processing, normal advance and retreat, linear interpolation, and great circle interpolation can meet the needs of five-axis machining.
#Kode CNC and Huazhong CNC systems are extending towards intelligence and automation, and are supporting the creation of automated production lines.
According to the data disclosed by Code CNC, the external selling price of its self-developed CNC system is lower than 50% of the average price of Siemens 840D, which is expected to accelerate the cost reduction of domestic five-axis machine tools and drive the penetration rate to increase.
#Functional components: The supply chain is mature and the self-made capabilities of enterprises are improved, from relying on imports to letting a hundred flowers bloom.
From the perspective of the supply chain, some leading manufacturing companies are currently extending into the machine tool industry chain to accelerate the maturity of the supply chain of functional components:
- 1) Hengli hydraulic cutting screw manufacturing is expected to support the machine tool industry chain. In September 2021, Hengli Hydraulics released a non-public issuance plan, planning to invest 1.527 billion yuan to build a linear drive project, which includes an annual production capacity of 100,000 meters of standard ball screws and 100,000 meters of heavy-duty ball screws. Hengli Hydraulics, leveraging its world-leading precision processing and manufacturing capabilities, is expected to replace domestically produced brands such as Japan’s NSK and Germany’s Schaeffler, and provide supporting equipment in the machine tool industry.
- 2) Green Harmonic and Haozhi Electromechanical have launched harmonic CNC turntables. Based on high-precision harmonic reducers, the turntable has excellent performance in terms of transmission accuracy, transmission torque, accuracy retention, and lifespan.
From the perspective of machine tool factories, currently Code CNC, Evermi (subsidiary of Topstar), etc. have realized the core self-developed functional components of five-axis machine tools, and the self-made rate of subsequent machine tool factories is expected to continue to increase:
- 1) Code CNC in addition to CNC In addition to the self-developed and self-made supporting components of the system, functional components such as the swing head and turntable are also self-made. With the support of direct drive/double direct drive technology, the functions, control accuracy and processing efficiency have reached the international advanced level.
- 2) Evermi realizes self-made spindles, swing heads, and cradle turntables, based on core technologies such as European GTRT high-end mechanical transmission technology and self-developed patented gear backlash elimination technology, with excellent rigidity, stability, and precision.
- 3) The Jinan No. 2 machine tool double-swing angle milling head project passed national acceptance. In 2021, the major national special project “Research and Application Demonstration of Key Technologies for Double Swing Angle Milling Heads of CNC Machine Tools” led by Jinan No. 2 Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. successfully passed the comprehensive performance evaluation and final file acceptance in Hanzhong, Shaanxi. We have conquered a series of key technologies such as serialization of double swing angle milling heads, manufacturing of key parts, static/dynamic accuracy adjustment, compensation and performance optimization, matching with domestic CNC systems, and reliability verification, and completed the development of 40 sets of products for users in key fields. Demonstration application.
#”Independent and controllable” related policies and financial support, domestic substitution of five-axis machine tools is expected to accelerate
Policy assistance: Policies for the development of China’s high-end machine tool industry have been frequently issued. In recent years, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and other departments have issued relevant policies to support the development of China’s high-end CNC machine tools; in addition, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation in September 2022 Issue policies to reduce or reduce taxes and fees incurred by high-tech enterprises when purchasing new equipment.
Investment assistance: General Technology Group and the National Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading Fund have increased investment in the machine tool sector.
- 1) China General Technology Group originally owned Machine Tool Research Institute, Qi’er Machine Tool, Harbin and other companies. It reorganized Dalian Machine Tool Group and Shenyang Machine Tool Group in April and December 2019 respectively. In May 2021, it also cooperated with Tianjin Municipal Government The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission signed a memorandum of understanding to deepen strategic cooperation. The two parties jointly invested 10 billion yuan to deepen the development of high-end precision CNC machine tools, key functional components and industrial Internet services. Machine tools have become one of the core businesses of General Technology Group.
- 2) The Transformation Fund was established in 2019 and has invested in many machine tool companies. In November 2019, CRRC announced the establishment of the National Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading Fund Co., Ltd. (Transformation Fund) with 19 shareholders, with a registered capital of 147.2 billion yuan, mainly focusing on new materials, new generation information technology, power equipment and other fields.Companies in the growth and maturity stages invest. In June 2022, the Transformation Fund participated in the private placement of Code CNC and planned to subscribe for 150 million yuan. In November 2021, it invested 300 million yuan in Rifa Precision Machinery. In October 2021, 594 million yuan was invested in Genesis. At the same time, the transformation fund began to involve upstream enterprises in the machine tool industry chain, and strategically invested in Su Great Wall Precision Technology Co., Ltd. (formerly Changshu Great Wall Bearing Co., Ltd.), which is expected to accelerate the maturity of the machine tool industry chain.
- 3) Two CSI Machine Tool ETFs were listed to strengthen investment in the machine tool industry chain. Two CSI Machine Tool ETFs from China Asset Management and Cathay Fund have been listed, which are the first fund products in the machine tool field approved for listing. Both ETFs track the CSI Machine Tool Index and involve listed companies in the fields of design, manufacturing and services of complete machine tools and key components such as CNC systems, spindles and cutting tools.